Craig Alexander

The odds clearly favor the Bank of Canada raising the overnight rate by a quarter point on May 24 to read more

The odds clearly favor the Bank of Canada raising the overnight rate by a quarter point on May 24 to 4.25 percent.

In contrast to Central and Eastern Canada, housing conditions in Western Canada remain very tight and are showing increased signs read more

In contrast to Central and Eastern Canada, housing conditions in Western Canada remain very tight and are showing increased signs of speculation. When economic conditions are booming, it can also create the perfect breeding ground for speculative price bubbles to form. That's because in such an environment, housing market participants are at greater risk of developing a case of irrational exuberance, especially if they expect that such exorbitant price gains will continue indefinitely.

Based on long-term factors, including demographics and income growth, the average annual increase in national home prices is likely to read more

Based on long-term factors, including demographics and income growth, the average annual increase in national home prices is likely to be around four per cent in the coming decade, so the recent high single- digit and low double-digit gains cannot persist indefinitely. But, the key issue is whether the adjustment to a more sustainable trend is gradual. The good news is that this is what appears to be happening in Central and Atlantic Canada.

Given these divergent signals from the Bank of Canada and the Fed, look for the Canadian dollar to strengthen in read more

Given these divergent signals from the Bank of Canada and the Fed, look for the Canadian dollar to strengthen in the near term, trading decisively through 90 U.S. cents.

It is one of the hardest things to forecast. So, get used to it.

It is one of the hardest things to forecast. So, get used to it.